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Home Computers: Once, only large corporations and government offices could afford home computers. But declining cost and size made it possible for even small businesses and individuals to own home computers. As an example, a simple, hand-held calculator of today contains more computational power than a warehouse-size computer that cost $64 million only 30 years ago. home computers are now used in most hotels, large or small, from major chain properties to small, roadside motels. Even small resorts on remote tropical islands use personal home computers to handle guest reservations and accounting.
Although crystal gazing is hazardous, it is safe to predict that ready availability of personal home computers will undoubtedly change our pattern of life by improving our memories and decision-making abilities. Because of microminiaturization, it is also possible to foresee complex home computers that should be capable of uses much different from those of present-day home computers. Such machines should be able to learn new tasks, display adaptive behavior to new stimuli, and perhaps even exhibit Signs of a creative consciousness.
This meteorological Utopia is by no means just around the corner. For one thing, today's home computers are too small for the task; according to the standard joke, a computer can make an accurate six-hour forecast, but the entire process can take four days to complete the job. No one doubts, however, that the necessary super-home computers will arrive in the not-too-distant future. (See Year in Review: ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, Theory of the General Circulation.) |
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